A trading system for stock selection using neural network

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

A trading system for stock selection using neural network

 

Author: Tse, Ah-shan
Title: A trading system for stock selection using neural network
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1998
Subject: Stock price forecasting -- Mathematical models
Investment analysis -- Data processing
Neural networks (Computer science)
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Computing
Pages: viii, 98 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1439105
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/1201
Abstract: This study aims to develop a computer system that employs neural network technology to produce advice to investors on what stocks to buy/sell and when these transactions should be carried out. Since the return rate of each stock (in terms of capital/ price increase) will fluctuate up or down relative to the market average, by investing in the rising stocks to replace those falling ones in a portfolio, the investor should be able to earn a profit which is above market average. The Dow Theory proposes that price fluctuations are results of three simultaneous movements: the primary trend lasting for months or years, the secondary trend lasting for weeks or months and the minor random moves lasting for hours or weeks. If trends do exist, we can establish reasonable guess for the near future based on the recent historical past. The historical trading data, i.e. price movements and volume of transactions, are transformed into technical indicators and fed into a neural network to produce the output which is the forecast of a short term return rate for a stock. Stocks are then ranked in accordance with their forecast return rate. Those on the top of the list should be "favour" in the market. A set of mechanical rules is developed to interpret the ranked list: if the ranking of a stock on hand stays in the top ten, hold it; if it falls below ten for a consecutive four weeks, replace it with one in the top ten not yet held. The trading system is developed with Shanghai stock market data during 20.12.93 - 25.12.95. A simulation is performed with data during 8.1.96 - 16.12.96 and the results show that an investor can achieve a return rate of 5.53 at the end of the trading period while the average return rate in the market is only 0.33.

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