Prediction based on inter-relationship among different series of sequential events

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

Prediction based on inter-relationship among different series of sequential events

 

Author: Lai, Leung
Title: Prediction based on inter-relationship among different series of sequential events
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 2003
Subject: Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Time-series analysis
Prediction theory
Department: Dept. of Computing
Pages: 155 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1745224
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/1207
Abstract: In the study of this dissertation, inter-relationship among sequential events in a number of series is dealt with. The testing data being in use are stock indexes of the following seven stock exchanges: - Hang Seng Index - NYSE composite - NASDAQ 100 - Dow Jones Industrials - FTSE 100 - NIKKEI 225 Stock Average - S&P 500 Composite This study is to find out the association between the fall / rise of an index and the previous fall / rise of different indexes. Using the discovered results, predictions of the fall / rise of upcoming indexes are performed based on the previous fall / rise of different indexes. For deciding whether an association exists between two events (fall / rise of an index), adjusted residual is employed. For better mining result, fuzzy data mining is performed. Fuzzification transformation is applied on the change ratio of the stock indexes. And, a Fuzzy Inference System is used for applying the mining results. Mamdani Inference System is employed in this study. For comparison on performance, Time Series Analysis is employed.

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