An intelligent decision support system prototype for diagnosis company'sperformance and viability

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

An intelligent decision support system prototype for diagnosis company'sperformance and viability

 

Author: Chiu, Fung-chi Dores
Title: An intelligent decision support system prototype for diagnosis company'sperformance and viability
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1999
Subject: Business -- Data processing
Management -- Data processing
Decision support systems
Expert systems (Computer science)
Fuzzy systems
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Multi-disciplinary Studies
Dept. of Computing
Pages: vi, 102, [15] leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1489510
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/1275
Abstract: In this dissertation, I have attempted to study the applicability of an intelligent decision support system (IDSS) with building tools of fuzzy logic, to assist Account staff in my work place to diagnosis of a company's performance and viability. Account staff of 'GDI' require undertaking frequent review of the existing subsidiaries' financial and qualitative situation. In addition, they also require reviewing a number of target companies during acquisition transactions. The process of diagnosis a company's performance and viability is complicated and time consuming. It is because it involves interpretation of financial statements and qualitative analysis of a company. The existing evaluation system is not efficient and effectiveness since the modeling of analysis is built on Microsoft Excel that cannot be multi-used by users. In addition, the input factors and output comments are indifference between accountants. The study covers the review of framework of financial analysis, literature review of IDSS and fuzzy logic. The aim of this paper is to present the design of the prototype, the methodology employ in future development of IDSS and it's application. The prototype has designed to apply fuzzy logic control model ("FLC') to enhance accuracy of the assessment result. Fuzzy logic models make use of fuzzy sets to handle and describe imprecise and complex phenomena and use logic operations to arrive to conclusion. However, the implementation of FLC requires the development of a knowledge base, which would make possible the stipulation of if....then rules by using fuzzy sets. The design of the main configuration of the prototype includes Fuzzy Knowledge Base, Fuzzy Reasoning Unit and Rule Editor to reflect such usage. The recommended development tool 'Fuzzy Systems Toolbox (FST)' enhanced user interface in graphical and dialog areas. Through the study, a prototype for diagnosis of a company's performance and viability was designed. In the design, I only use fourteen accounting ratios (attributes) which composed into three block criteria in order to assess the financial status, and seven qualitative factors in accessing the qualitative status. But it involves about one thousand seven hundred eighty rules for obtaining the final assessment result of the company's performance and viability. It is because each attribute's input and output involves four variables that cause huge number of rules involved. It is valuable for future studies on changing the multi-inputs-single output model into one-input-one-output model. The evaluation result of the designed prototype shown that it is effective and efficiency in assisting account staff in performing their task. In conclusion, the prototype innovation a new concept of 'Intelligent Decision Support System' into my corporation and that is highly acceptable by users.

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