Forecasting non-scheduled wastage of junior police officers (JPO'S)

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Forecasting non-scheduled wastage of junior police officers (JPO'S)


Author: Cheuk, Chun-yin Albert
Title: Forecasting non-scheduled wastage of junior police officers (JPO'S)
Degree: M.B.A.
Year: 1993
Subject: Royal Hong Kong Police
Labor turnover -- China -- Hong Kong -- Case studies
Manpower planning -- China -- Hong Kong -- Case studies
Hong Kong Polytechnic -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Management
Pages: 1 v. (various pagings) ; ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record:
Abstract: The Royal Hong Kong police force had in recent years experienced severe shortage of manpower because of low recruitment and high non-scheduled wastage of Junior Police Officers. This study investigates the correlations between the Non-scheduled wastage of Junior Police Officers and the economy of Hong Kong, the danger which the police faced whilst policing the territory, the pay offered to them, the promotion prospect as well as the impending change of sovereignty of Hong Kong in 1997 and the June 4th Incident. The objective is to develop means of manpower forecasting. Ten years' data were collected from within the Force and the Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong. Multiple Regression analyses were performed on the data. Analysis results revealed that non-scheduled wastages of Police Constables and Woman Police Constables had been the highest among the six classes of Junior Police Officers. Moderate wastages were observed in the rank of male Sergeant and Station Sergeant. Very low wastage of Woman Sergeant and minimal wastage of Woman Station Sergeant were recorded. Two models were established to forecast non-scheduled wastage of male Police Constables and Woman Police Constables with relatively high reliability. The major determinants of wastages of these two classes of officers are Hong Kong's economy, '1997' issue and the June 4th Incident. Besides, salary and promotion to the next rank were also influential in the Woman Police Constable Cadre. Although the study does establish models to forecast wastoges of the other four classes of officers, they are not very reliable and could explain no more than 40% of the variances of the wastages in the past ten years.

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