收費方式變化對用戶規模影響的研究

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

收費方式變化對用戶規模影響的研究

 

Author: 高翔
Gao, Xiang
Title: 收費方式變化對用戶規模影響的研究
Shou fei fang shi bian hua dui yong hu gui mo ying xiang de yan jiu
Impact of charging regime change on mobile subscriber : an empirical study on the case of China
Degree: D.B.A.
Year: 2005
Subject: Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Telecommunication -- China -- Case studies
Department: Graduate School of Business
Pages: xix, 238 leaves : ill., charts ; 30 cm
Language: Chinese
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b2065520
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/2140
Abstract: The central theme of this thesis is to estimate the market sizes of mobile services under different charging regimes, i.e., calling-party-pays principle (CPP) versus receivers pay principle (RPP). For this purpose I first set up theoretical models to describe the effect of change of charge pattern on the relative prices of different tariff choices. In the case of a monopolistic operator offering subscribers three-part tariff choices under asymmetric information about their preferences, the main insight is that charge pattern affects the relative prices of different tariff choices and thus the market shares of users choosing different tariffs. In addition, I show that under asymmetric network competition, changing CPP to RPP leads to a change of relative prices of different operators. These results constitute the theoretical foundation for the ensuring empirical study. Because right now CPP has not yet been adopted in China, the methodology of my empirical study has some counterfactual nature - I estimate the impact of potential policy reform - changing RPP to CPP - on consumer's tariff choice and thus on the market size. In fact, I set up two types of behavioral equations to do the calculation: one is discrete choice models describing consumers' tariff choices; and the other is aggregate access demand or market size model. The main steps of estimation are as follows: (1) to set up discrete choice model based on consumer theory; (2) to estimate consumers preferences associated with their tariff choices using calling data provided by China Mobile; (3) to estimate the impacts of changing RPP to CPP on consumer's tariff choice, assuming preference parameters unchanged, then obtaining the market shares of users choosing different tariff choices under CPP, which gives rise to average price levels; and finally, to estimate the change of market size by inserting average price levels to the aggregate access demand model. The main empirical result of my thesis shows that the impact of changing RPP to CPP on market size depends on different scenarios of tariff reform. More precisely, if tariff reform is such that after RPP is changed to CPP, the calling price remains unchanged while reception is equal to zero, which is indeed the understanding of what charging pattern change means for most people, consumer's tariff choice will change accordingly, leading to the fall of average price levels. As a result, the market size will increase; on the other hand, under the other scenario where calling price is doubled while reception price is equal to zero, which means tariff offers have to be adjusted after changing RPP to CPP, our result shows that average prices increase, leading to the reduction of market size. The main policy implication of our empirical result is that under current regulatory environment in China, when one analyzes the impact of charging pattern reform, it is necessary to distinguish between the impact of tariff reform and that of change of charging pattern per se. Indeed, changing RPP to CPP does not simply mean readjustment of tariffs but may have a profound impact on competition in China's telecommunications market, in particular when competition between fixed-line services and mobile services becomes increasingly fierce. The main contribution of this thesis is to analyze the microeconomic mechanism of the impact of Changing RPP to CPP on market size by modeling tariff design under three-part tariff and asymmetric information and asymmetric network competition. In addition, I use consumer's tariff choice model to construct microeconomics-based price index, which is employed to estimate the impact of charging pattern change on market size. Thus, both the theoretical part and the empirical part of this thesis have contributed to the literature. In particular, constructing price index based on tariff choice model is a significant contribution to demand analysis of telecommunications.

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