A prototype expert system for the Daya Bay contingency plan in Hong Kong

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

A prototype expert system for the Daya Bay contingency plan in Hong Kong


Author: Wan, Fuk-tai Rebecca
Title: A prototype expert system for the Daya Bay contingency plan in Hong Kong
Year: 2000
Subject: Daya wan he dian zhan (China)
Nuclear power plants -- China -- Daya Bay -- Safety measures
Expert systems (Computer science) -- China -- Hong Kong
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Computing
Pages: x, 93, [54] leaves : ill. (some col.) ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1539512
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/2403
Abstract: Decision making is particularly important for emergency managers as they often need to make quick and high quality decisions under stress based on scratch and inadequate information. The urgent and vital nature of disasters require them to follow strict rules and procedures, to make use of tremendous sources and types of information, to follow expert knowledge and past experience. All these if not well preserved and structurally organized, are of limited use for emergency response management. The potential release of radioactive material from the Guangdong Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) at Daya Bay, though is highly unlikely, could perhaps be the most dreaded disaster which would cause drastic damages to lives and properties. The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government (HKSAR) has therefore in 1990 completed the Daya Bay Contingency Plan (DBCP) to prepare for such disasters. The plan covers detailed contingency procedures in radiation monitoring, accident consequence assessment, counter-measures, decontamination, staffing and resources etc. To supplement the experts to assist disaster managers with a useful tool to make better quality decisions based on well-structured, accurate, sufficient expert knowledge, a prototype expert system has been developed in this dissertation to cover two major areas of the plan, namely: (A) Determination of activation level of the DBCP and provision of an action checklist and (B) Recommendation of counter-measures. This dissertation follows the Linear Model and uses the EXSYS Professional, a commercial shell for system development. Knowledge verification has been conducted through both the EXSYS's system function and testing cases with human expert's advice. While overall system evaluation on the prototype has been performed by making use of previous exercise data with assistance from experts, and user survey to ensure quality and usefulness. They ultimate goal of developing the prototype is to form a basis for further system development to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in emergency response to nuclear accidents in HK.

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