Comparative analysis of clinical trials using long-term survivor models

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

Comparative analysis of clinical trials using long-term survivor models

 

Author: Hui, Yuk-hung
Title: Comparative analysis of clinical trials using long-term survivor models
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 2001
Subject: Clinical trials
Survival analysis (Biometry)
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Multi-disciplinary Studies
Dept. of Applied Mathematics
Pages: xii, 154 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1569108
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/3267
Abstract: This study ascertains the benefits of using long-term survivor models (mixture models) in analysis of clinical trials. Survival times of 195 patients with pharynx cancer are analysed with mixture models advocated by Mailer and Zhou (1996). Statistical test using both non-parametric and parametric methods suggest immunes is present in the sample (at 5% level of significance) and mixture models should apply. Weibull mixture model provides an excellent description of patients' survival pattern. The mean absolute percentage errors of fitting using Weibull mixture model is 8.34% while it is 17.97% for ordinary Weibull model. This represents more than 100% improvement in goodness of fit. Other measurements of goodness of fit such as log-likelihood and correlation coefficient for censored data yield consistent result. The mixture model predicts that in long run 20.9% of the patients are free from pharynx cancer after treatments. In the trials, 100 patients are treated with standard radiation treatment (radiotherapy) alone while the other 95 patients are treated with an additional chemotherapeutic agent (neo-adjuvant chemotherapy). Comparison of treatment effects using traditional approaches did not detect significant difference between the two regimens (at 5% level of significance). Parametric test based on Weibull mixture model, however, reveals significant difference between them. Patients short-tern survival is comprised by the neo-adjuvant and their median survival time is 397 days (i.e. 13 months) compared with 553 days (i.e. 18 months) for those treated with radiation alone. However, patients receiving the neo-adjuvant have a better long-term prospective as higher proportion is cured (23.2%). For patients treated with radiation alone only 17.2% is cured.

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