基於混合類神經預測住宅銷售的比較分析

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

基於混合類神經預測住宅銷售的比較分析

 

Author: 邱郁文
Chiu, Yuwen
Title: 基於混合類神經預測住宅銷售的比較分析
Ji yu hun he lei shen jing yu ce zhu zhai xiao shou de bi jiao fen xi
The comparison of hybrid neural network model base on house selling
Degree: D.B.A.
Year: 2007
Subject: Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations.
Real estate business.
Department: Graduate School of Business
Pages: xi, 95 leaves : charts ; 30 cm.
Language: Chinese
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b2241538
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/3525
Abstract: Since There is the Humankind history been, The construction have always be there with different type. For instance, Upper Cave Man mines, it is also the technology of building construction too. It is the industry which can't export and import the raw materials. In the same time, it is also the locomotive engines of different industry. Such as if we no longer build the house, there will no demand for the supply on the concrete building materials products, The equipment manufacturer and furniture manufacturer also can't sell their stock either. And we will not use the relative service of transporting etc. Therefore, the rise and decline of the building construction industry really have deep relations with all industries. When the construction industry is raising, it would help other industries to growth up too. Therefore, it would affect the economics of the whole country. The profit of construction industry comes from the finished product itself which is different with the general products. The cost of the construction industry is rather high, once the house can not be sold out, the stock would be very serious. This would not only reduce the profits, It would also cause the blocked up of the cash flow. During the competitive house selling market, there are lots of house medium companies on the market. Relative to the newly-built house is a bigger market which is always neglected. The purpose of enterprise is to gain profit. That is why reducing cost means increasing profits. In the same time, if we can increase enterprise's house selling turnover abilities and gain more profits. Therefore, How to the make house construction smoothly and sell to customer is an important issue that worth to discuss In fact, if the house was finished to early, but can not finds the customer to buy it, It would becomes the cost of stock. Decision maker have to arrange all marketing activities for all its relevant production and selling effectively in order to allocate resources effectively and meet the specific performance indicator. The company should accumulate the competitiveness ability on the market, that means we can do the supplies the chain to manage (Supply Chain Management, SCM) well. The executive management leader should know how to use the newest infonnation and make correct decision too. All the information is the estimation which the can make forecasting. Rational and reliable sales forecasting information can help to control the stock effectively. The company should avoid the situation with no materiel to produce and stop work. This model can provide useful information to help decision maker to make a right decision. Because of the system is the key for the business to win or lose call in the market. By making the forecasting well to increase the competitiveness and make better performance. Traditional forecasting was restricted by the life cycle of the products and those shorter life cycle can not offer good data for training. In the traditional statistical method, neural network and data mining is relatively important but the challenge can not be broken.. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting model to solve this problem.

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