Transmission network planning with the aid of probabilistic load flow analysis

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

Transmission network planning with the aid of probabilistic load flow analysis


Author: Cheung, Che-hung
Title: Transmission network planning with the aid of probabilistic load flow analysis
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1997
Subject: Electric networks -- Data processing
Electric power transmission -- Planning
Electric power systems -- Load dispatching
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Multi-disciplinary Studies
Pages: vii, 62 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
Abstract: This dissertation project is to apply probabilistic load flow technique in transmission network planning. In this project, the probabilistic load flow problem is formulated based on linearisation of the AC load flow equation, with the application of the cumulants on random variables such that the convolution operations could be simplified to additions. Gram-Charlier series expansion is applied for the evaluation of the probability density function of the state variables and line flows and the probability of the random variable up to a specified value. Based on these formulations, a probabilistic load flow program is written by MATHLAB(R) which serves as the tool for transmission network planning. The network expansion requirements for an eight-bus system in years 2001 and 2002 under different load forecast scenarios (i.e. high, main and low forecasts) have been assessed based on this new technique. Comparisons with the results from the conventional method of using deterministic load flow analysis are also made. A new approach of selecting alternative reinforcement schemes based on the risk of circuit overloading is also discussed. The probabilistic load flow analysis which provides valuable information about the probability of circuit overloads and voltage violation would enable system planner in the planning of a dynamic power system that faced uncertainties.

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