An expert system for assessing the risk level of property development projects in Mainland China

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

An expert system for assessing the risk level of property development projects in Mainland China

 

Author: Cheung, Wai-chiu Pekky
Title: An expert system for assessing the risk level of property development projects in Mainland China
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1996
Subject: Real property -- China
Real estate development -- China
Real estate investment -- China
Expert systems (Computer science)
Risk management -- China
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Computing
Pages: 1 v. (various pagings) ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1235765
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/4580
Abstract: Property development requires substantial investment. The business is risky in the way that a signicant time lag exists between the injection of investment and the inflow of sale proceeds. Developers used to have their investment in the region that they are familiar with. Nevertheless, the Open Door policy, the emerging afffluency together with the large population in PRC attract many local developers to the region in recent years. Land supply in PRC is abundant and prospective projects are countless. However, its inmature operating and legal system cause many unforeseeable problems. It is thus essential to assess the risk level of a project at its conception stage in order to minimize loss. Meanwhile, risk assessment for those projects is mainly based on practical experience or failure which is generally stay with project managers. It is indeed qiuite difficult to retain the expertise consequent to staff turnover. The selection of a right project among the many available is also time consuming. To overcome the aforesaid problems, a Risk Assessment System (RA system) is developed by incorporating factors concerned with economic risk, legal risk, and financial risk as well are included in deciding the risk level of a project. Since assessment is conducted relying on the past cases, Case-based Reasoning approach (CBR) supplement by a rule-based system is adopted in this research. In the development process, the area under study is defined i.e. Assessing risk level of joint venture property development projects in PRC with our total investment less than HKD 100 million. Then the knowledge acquisition and representation stage is pursued. A prototype is eventually developed for the system and its applicability is evaluated. To facilitate the development of the prototype, an expert system shell KAPPA is used attributes to its reasoning capability and hierarchical representation properties. To a large extent, the RA system is appropriate to the problems concerned by allowing the evaluation of the risk level of the projects efficently and effectively. On the other hand, the developer is able to put what have been studied in the course into practice by developing the RA system using one of the expert system shell which undouotedly is of great benefits to her and her company alike.

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