The development of an expert system for management decision support in financial analysis and planning for a manufacturing company

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

The development of an expert system for management decision support in financial analysis and planning for a manufacturing company


Author: Lo, Kin-hang Brian
Title: The development of an expert system for management decision support in financial analysis and planning for a manufacturing company
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1995
Subject: Industrialists
Expert systems (Computer science)
Decision support systems
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Computing
Pages: xii, 176 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
Abstract: The Financial Analysis System ("SYSTEM") is an expert system based on the Object Oriented Programming (OOP) and rules reasoning. The Components of the SYSTEM include I/O interfaces, Application Modules, Inference Engine, Knowledge Base, Supporting Modules. The I/O interface is built with 20 session windows enabling the user to operate the SYSTEM in a user-friendly way. The user of the SYSTEM can retrieve data from the floppy disk and manipulate data afterwards. The analysis results can be listed and saved as text files. Floppy disk can also be stored with updated information. Graphic presentations can be accessed. The SYSTEM is a financial analysis system for some of the financial analysis. The Application Modules include: (a) Profit Analysis, (b) Sensitivity Analysis, (c) Project Feasibility Analysis, and (d) Target Profit Analysis. The Profit Analysis can review the profitability of the company by calculating the aggregated profit results of the coming six months of the company. The Sensitivity Analysis reviews the impact of the change of certain parameters on the profitability of the company. Both Profit Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis are multi-parametric analysis by which integral effects of one or more parameters can be reviewed. The Project Feasibility Analysis reviews financial feasibility of an investment project by calculating Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. The Target Profit Analysis will respond to the user upon the request of achieving certain profit target prescribed for analysis. After defining the profit target, the SYSTEM will commence a reasoning process and derive the aggregated profit result. Both forwarding chaining and backward chaining can be used for the Analysis. The inference engine takes the facts and rules embedded in the SYSTEM's knowledge base and put them to use during a consultation with the SYSTEM. The knowledge of the SYSTEM includes rules, objects, inheritance, functions, methods and goals that are stored in the knowledge base. The construction of the knowledge base involves acquisition, representation and validation. The benefits of the SYSTEM are from two areas. The first area is Object Oriented Programming, that the SYSTEM has been incorporated with most of the advantages of OOP. The second area is due to the SYSTEM itself. The benefits of the SYSTEM include (a) information on the manufacturing scheduling, material status and market forecast, and the expertise of the financial controller have been made available. (b) The top management executive can make necessary analysis, draw conclusion, and seek advices for the manufacturing plan of the coming months. (c) External environment can be appreciated and responded by the top management executive more efficiently and effectively. (d) Systemization of the analysis and consultation process for a more reliable and repeatable result. It is not the intention of the developer nor the objective of the SYSTEM to replace the expert with the SYSTEM. By the application of the SYSTEM in a factory company, it helps to reaffirm the notion that not only decision support system can be used in management, Expert systems can also be employed to aid decision making in management application.

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