Estimation of grain trade seaborne demand : an implication from gravity model

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Estimation of grain trade seaborne demand : an implication from gravity model

 

Author: Zhao, Xiaoxue
Title: Estimation of grain trade seaborne demand : an implication from gravity model
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 2009
Subject: Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Grain trade -- Mathematical models
Grain -- Transportation
Merchant marine -- Economic aspects.
Department: Graduate School of Business
Pages: iv, 77 leaves : ill. ; 31 cm.
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b2355995
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/5778
Abstract: In the year of 2008, financial turmoil triggered by the subprime crisis of USA had swept the entire world and spread to so many kinds of industries and businesses. As a service industry providing transport service for international trades, shipping industry has suffered heavily. According to the supply and demand theory of maritime economics, the downturn of shipping industry is fundamentally caused by the imbalance between seaborne supply and demand. The supply of sea transport capacity is constructed by the tonnage or vessels which shipowners would like to provide. And the seaborne demand is derived from the commodities needing carriage by sea. In shipping industry, seaborne supply will vary in response to the seaborne demand through freight rate linkage. The demand for seaborne carriage is affected by the world economy and changed quickly; meanwhile the supply of seaborne transport reacts slowly. Therefore, in order to arrange seaborne supply planning and avoid shortage or excess of transport capacity, predictions of demand for sea transport service is so important. As the seaborne demand is a derived demand, in order to predict the seaborne demand, the commodities trades needing sea carriage shall be forecasted first. This research focuses on grain which is one of the three major dry bulks transported by sea. And the prediction of seaborne demand is transformed into forecasting grain trades. Gravity model as a quantitative technology is utilized in this research. By selecting variables (GDP, GDP per capita, population, population growth rate, exchange rate, area and distance between countries) which affect grain trade and collecting the latest 11 year data of the grain trade of the major grain trading countries (e.g. USA, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and so on), the statistical analysis software SPSS is used to test how the gravity model fit the collected data. The results outputted by SPSS are comparatively good and can provide some implications for the shipowners when they operate their companies and plan the seaborne supply. It will be helpful to maximize the shipowners{174} profit and keep the dry bulk shipping market stable.

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