An expert system prototype for advising the acceptability of insurance applications

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

An expert system prototype for advising the acceptability of insurance applications

 

Author: Che, Yin-hong Patrick
Title: An expert system prototype for advising the acceptability of insurance applications
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1997
Subject: Insurance -- Planning
Expert systems (Computer science)
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Computing
Pages: 133 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1405430
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/645
Abstract: To determine the acceptability of insurance applications is part of the underwriting process. And the purpose of underwriting is to choose to cover, from all the risks which are proposed to the insurer, those which collectively will be profitable. To underwriter, judgment has to be made on whether the proposal is acceptable. This judgment is based on the experience of underwriter. As underwriter always operate in conditions of uncertainty, their decision-making is often intuitive: relying on previous experience and information which may be available to conceive a largely informal and unverbalised analysis of options. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an expert system prototype to perform part of the underwriting tasks currently undertaken by human experts; that is to determine the acceptability of insurance applications by employing fuzzy logic and fuzzy measure in a rule-based system to handle uncertainty. It is expected that the expert system will not only speed up the insurance applications processing time by allowing decision-making process to be distributed at the point-of-sale, but also achieve resource utilization by eventually allowing all bank insurance executives to function as effectively as the expert underwriters. A Fuzzy rule-based system was formulated from knowledge of factors that may influence the selection process, expert considerations of how imprecise modes of reasoning is carried out by using linguistic variables and fuzzy measure in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. The KAPPAC-PC expert system shell is adopted for the system development. Evaluation and testing are carried out at the end of the development stage. The result of evaluation is acceptable given only a small number of factors are considered by the prototype. To develop a complete expert system, more factors need to be evaluated and more intermediate truth values for these factors are also needed to be considered. In this research project, I only consider one to two truth values for a factor to illustrate the application of fuzzy logic in building the expert system prototype.

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