Temperature projection in Hong Kong using remote sensing and dynamic modelling

Pao Yue-kong Library Electronic Theses Database

Temperature projection in Hong Kong using remote sensing and dynamic modelling

 

Author: To, Pui Hang
Title: Temperature projection in Hong Kong using remote sensing and dynamic modelling
Degree: M.Phil.
Year: 2012
Subject: Temperature measurements.
Temperature measurements -- Remote sensing.
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Dept. of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics
Pages: x, 94 p. : ill., col. maps ; 30 cm.
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b2530162
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/6757
Abstract: Temperature projections for Hong Kong have been carried out by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in recent years. These projections have largely been based on the local climate data collected at the HKO Headquarters, and data obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These projections have only been able to reflect the expected temperature change at the HKO Headquarters site, but have paid little attention to the effects of global warming and urbanisation at local scale across the whole of Hong Kong. This research has examined temperature changes due to both global warming and urbanisation effects independently and applied them over the whole of Hong Kong. The effect of global warming on temperature was estimated by regressing the IPCC data against the background temperature recorded at the Ta Kwu Ling (TKL) climate station, which is assumed to be free from urbanisation. Results showed that background temperature in Hong Kong will rise between 0.10℃ and 1.29℃ (with an ensemble of 0.67℃) in total in the next three decades depending on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions at regional scale. Long-term temperature data and the measureable urbanisation parameter plot ratio surrounding different auto weather stations were used to model the temperature changes for different degrees of urbanisation. Models representing daytime and nighttime respectively were developed based on these data, and the results suggested a logarithmic relationship between the rate of temperature change and plot ratio (degree of urbanisation). When the effects of global warming and present and future urbanisation are known, the actual rate of temperature increase at different locations across Hong Kong can be calculated. Future temperature maps can therefore be produced by applying the rate of increases to the current temperature maps. The current temperature patterns over the whole of Hong Kong were retrieved from two ASTER thermal images. One of the images was obtained in summer daytime while the other one was obtained at night. By a method of simple addition, the temperatures are projected towards 2039 in 10-year intervals. This research also studied the effects of future projected higher air temperatures on public health using the parameter of thermal comfort. Mortality is expected to rise as heat-related deaths may occur under a continuously hot environment during both day and night. The thermal comfort levels are also expected to decrease in the future because of the predicted hot and humid weather in Hong Kong.

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