Domestic passengers forecast for Kowloon-Canton East and West railways

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Domestic passengers forecast for Kowloon-Canton East and West railways

 

Author: Tsang, Kwong-kin
Title: Domestic passengers forecast for Kowloon-Canton East and West railways
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 1998
Subject: Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation
Railroads -- China -- Hong Kong
Railroads -- Passenger traffic
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Multi-disciplinary Studies
Dept. of Civil and Structural Engineering
Pages: ii, 194, [207] leaves : ill., map ; 30 cm
Language: English
InnoPac Record: http://library.polyu.edu.hk/record=b1453594
URI: http://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/97
Abstract: In 1983, Kowloon-Canton East Railway completed its electrification and modernification. The Railway encouraged the developments of Sha Tin, Tai Po and North new towns. In 1997, Government decided to construct Kowloon-Canton West Railway in order to solve the traffic congestion problems of Tuen Mun, Yuen Long, Tin Shui Wai and Tsuen Wan new towns. It could be seen that domestic passenger demands of electrified Kowloon-Canton East Railway and the developments of the new towns along the railway existing a highly correlated relationships. This study is trying to discover the relationships between the domestic passengers demands of Kowloon-Canton East Railway and the socio-economic data of the new towns that are along the railway. These relationships are used to forecast the passenger demands of Kowloon-Canton East Railway at Year 2001. Time Series Analysis such as Least - Squares Trend Fitting, Autogressive Time Series, Classical Multiplicative and Holt-Winters Models are also used to forecast the domestic passengers of Kowloon-Canton East Railway at Year 2001. Forecasted passengers of Regression Analysis and Time Series Analysis are compared. Also, passenger demands of Kowloon-Canton West Railway at Year 2004 are forecasted by Regression Analysis models that are deduced form Kowloon-Canton West Railway.

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