Author: Song, Peng Lin
Title: Analysis on influencing factors of national quantified road safety targets
Advisors: Sze, Nang Ngai (CEE)
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 2020
Subject: Traffic safety
Traffic safety -- Government policy
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Pages: v, 53 pages : color illustrations
Language: English
Abstract: Many countries worldwide are implementing quantified road safety targets as part of national road safety strategies to improve road safety performance since the 1970s. Previous studies have evaluated the effectiveness of the quantified road safety targets and factors that contribute to a target's success. However, the 50% reduction target for road deaths by 2020 set out by the international community in accordance with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the EU Road Safety Target remains out of reach on current trends. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the specific factors that affect the achievement of quantified road safety targets to improve the success rate of goals. We used multiple logistic regression models to determine the relationship between the achievement of 65 national road safety targets set in 32 countries of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) during 1994-2015 and influencing factors combined with market segmentation approach at the macro level. The multiple logistic regression models with the achievement of quantified road safety targets as response variable were developed considering 11 factors as explanatory variables, including the target duration, annual reduction rate, target completion, national income, fatality rate, vehicle ownership, urban population, road infrastructure investment, age group of the population, population density, and tertiary school enrollment. The results indicate that the likelihood of national target success is related to the attribute of the target. It is found that completed targets with the level of ambition lower than 5% had higher odds of being achieved. The findings of this study would be beneficial for road safety stakeholders to formulate road safety initiatives to reduce road fatalities. The robust interim targets and road targets set in different regions and levels can consider the influencing factors more comprehensively and carefully, which may increase the likelihood of success.
Rights: All rights reserved
Access: restricted access

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