| Author: | Endemann, Henry Leonard |
| Title: | Compact mega : scenarios for the interplay between urban megaprojects and megaregional planning strategies |
| Advisors: | Bruyns, Gerhard (SD) |
| Degree: | Ph.D. |
| Year: | 2024 |
| Subject: | City planning Regional planning Urbanization Urban renewal Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations |
| Department: | School of Design |
| Pages: | 462 pages : color illustrations |
| Language: | English |
| Abstract: | Urbanization is increasingly fast, expansive, complex, and uncertain. On the one hand, massive urban development projects drive radical transformations in and around the world’s most powerful economic nodes – urban megaprojects. On the other hand, regional strategies support urban expansion and infrastructural networking of urban centers and their metropolitan surroundings towards massive urban fields – megaregions. Particularly in Greater China, the expansion of urban agglomerations is closely tied to large-scale urban development; using property development and transportation infrastructure to make big planning strategies tangible. This thesis investigates the interplay between urban megaprojects and megaregions through the academic fields of regional design and strategic foresight. The field of urbanism – including regional design – is poorly equipped to explore uncertain and volatile futures systematically. Conversely, the field of business management, particularly strategic foresight, offers an extensive and in-depth knowledge base for using scenarios to shape corporate strategies. This knowledge base is examined in this thesis in order to unpack the dynamics and ambitions of relevant actors and build scenarios to discuss plausible futures. Hence, the aim is to innovate the use of scenarios in urban and regional design to advance the ability of these fields to tackle the complexity of megaregional development. The geographical focus lies on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (China). The two major theoretical building blocks for this thesis are the Compact City and mega-regionalization. The Compact City is widely used as an urban design and planning concept. However, it is insufficiently defined to deal with the complexity of contemporary urbanization processes. Mega-regionalization is a promising theory that reveals this complexity, showing how the benefits of urban concentration lead to enormous multi-scalar and multi-layered compositions that expand far beyond conventional city cores. The thesis argues that urban megaprojects are not only the prototype of contemporary urban compaction but also a crucial link between megaregional planning strategies and physical development. Therefore, the megaregion-megaprojects interplay is proposed as the suitable basis to discuss the ambitions and dynamics that drive urban futures – Compact Mega. The theoretical and methodological issues presented above constitute the main research question: How could different ambitions of designers and planners, and the dynamics between them and other actors, shape spatial futures of the megaregion-megaprojects interplay? Answers to this question are sought through a methodological framework that uses a mixed-methods case study approach to build scenarios for a sample area within a megaregion (The Greater Bay Area) and assess their outcomes in terms of sustainable development. Accordingly, the framework has three major parts – inventory, projection, and assessment. The inventory phase presents the key layers needed to generate a comprehensive understanding of the current condition of the sample area. This includes land use clusters, functions, networks, and an analysis of existing spatial strategies and exemplary megaprojects. Findings are presented in a 70 by 90 km sample area, mainly covering the cities of Hong Kong and Shenzhen, which forms the basis to project scenarios. The projection phase is at the core of the methodological framework. Here, the key inputs for future development are collected: first, semi-structured interviews with 18 experts on large-scale urban development in China and beyond are conducted, enquiring detailed statements on the ambitions of individuals and organizations in the public and private sector, and specific insights on the dynamics between consultants and commissioners; second, the outcomes of 38 design projects, produced by over 150 students in nine university studios between 2018 and 2022 (at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, TU Delft, and HIT Shenzhen), are analyzed regarding their conceptual frameworks and specific proposals for spatial transformations. Insights from expert conversations and design studios are synthesized with regard to major drivers and uncertainties for the megaregion-megaprojects interplay. This forms the basis for building four distinct scenarios that project plausible regional strategies and respective collections of megaprojects. Each scenario is expressed through textual description as well as spatial visualizations. Finally, the assessment phase uses a set of 17 indicators to discuss potential effects of the scenarios in terms of sustainable development. The spatial features of the scenarios are normalized into hexagonal grid cells, which allow for a concise comparison of the changes that each scenario would cause. Indicators are mainly concerned with accessibility and density measures, following the identified drivers of mega-regionalization. The indicators are further aggregated into indices that allow for a discussion of wider socio-economic and environmental implications. The methodological framework provides comprehensive insights into the megaregion-megaprojects interplay, including an advanced understanding of the dynamics and ambitions of different actors. The analysis of dynamics shows a strong reliance on consultants from different disciplines to lead strategies and projects at various stages of development. Moreover, the rather formal and regulation-driven approach of public organizations contrasts the much more informal and personality-driven approaches of private companies. Mainland China is generally more flexible and open to innovative approaches than Hong Kong. Looking at the ambitions of actors, a key observation is that actors use values with a tendency to follow very broad frameworks such as sustainability and ESG. While more specific values are only used occasionally, it is highly uncertain who introduces values into development processes. Meanwhile, the (design) principles used by different actors have a strong tendency towards urban compaction, irrespective of the associated values and whether or not compaction is explicitly used as a term. This understanding of the megaregion-megaprojects interplay forms the basis for exploring spatial futures and their effects. Following the insights gained from the collected data, the thesis presents scenarios with a focus on two major uncertainties: the alignment between actors and the specificity of used values. This leads to four scenarios that either follow ESG – a very broad and holistic value, health – a rather specific value, or social – a middle way that is holistic but uses a specific sustainability dimension. Moreover, scenarios either pursue these values in a very coordinated manner – using coherent frameworks and establishing large areas with unified strategies, or in a more individual or even egoistic way. Accordingly, the four scenarios are: “collective frameworks”, “holistic pioneers”, “somewhat social”, and “all for one”. The narratives of these scenarios are translated into spatial patterns that use concentric or linear development forms, as well as functional or morphological development approaches. The assessment of the scenarios does not identify a “winner”, but rather allows for a more sophisticated discussion. The synthesis of sustainability indicators suggests that scenarios that use linear development patterns are more desirable, especially when they use functional development approaches. The impact of different degrees of value specificity is rather limited, while increased actor alignment clearly has positive effects. However, many of these findings may be counteracted by smaller-scale urban design characteristics, which could only be partially included in the spatial scenarios. The thesis contributes to knowledge in urban-regional design and planning, both through its methodology and its industry-related insights. First, it draws unprecedented links between strategic foresight and the larger field of urbanism. Second, the scenario-building framework streamlines design research towards concise results that directly inform better decision-making. Third, the data analysis gives extensive insights into how designers and planners try to steer development in Greater China – not only on a conceptual level but also through concrete spatial interventions. Fourth, the thesis provides a comprehensive critique of contemporary ambitions for urban compaction, thereby challenging the common understanding of one of urbanism’s most persistent paradigms. In conclusion, the outcomes suggest that urban compaction continues to receive broad support from various actors and often inexplicitly guides design principles. Hence, compaction is shown to have major impacts on megaregional development and its use seems almost non-negotiable. Furthermore, while the choice of different values is shown to have limited effects, the alignment between actors and their ability to scale innovative practices strongly influences the transformation of regional development patterns. Finally, scenario-building is proven to be an instrumental tool in exploring megaregional futures. It should be further leveraged to bring together different actors to envision projects and processes that do not push for ideal solutions right away but are open to tackle complexity in a flexible manner across multiple scales. |
| Rights: | All rights reserved |
| Access: | open access |
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