| Author: | Cui, Xiao |
| Title: | Evolutionary mechanisms and spatio-temporal effects of homestead use under the joint reform of hukou system and homestead system |
| Advisors: | Hui, Chi Man Eddie (BRE) |
| Degree: | Ph.D. |
| Year: | 2026 |
| Department: | Department of Building and Real Estate |
| Pages: | xix, 278 pages : color illustrations |
| Language: | English |
| Abstract: | Guiding the rational evolution of rural homestead is not only a key strategy for rural revitalization but a vital approach to expanding new space for urban-rural development. Since China's Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee in 2013, comprehensive reforms of hukou and homestead systems have been initiated, inevitably leading to significant changes in the lifestyle and homestead use behaviors of hundreds of millions of rural migrants, and the evolution of homestead use. What impact will reforms have on homestead use behavior? How can the evaluation of homestead use patterns be effectively regulated under institutional reforms? To answer these questions, it's essential to understand the long-term characteristics of homestead use evolution and potential trends of multiple policy interventions. Based on this, this study incorporates the macro-level institutional environment, micro-level behavioral responses, and spatial patterns. By comprehensively employing spatial equilibrium models, econometric models, multi-agent systems, and geographic information systems, it reveals the evolutionary mechanisms and spatio-temporal effects of homestead use behavior under the joint reform of hukou system and homestead system. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) A framework for analyzing the evolutionary mechanisms and spatio-temporal effects of homestead use behavior under the joint reform of hukou system and homestead system is developed. The findings reveal that major homestead system reforms throughout history have been advanced in conjunction with hukou system reforms. Their joint reform changes the nature of homestead property rights, replacing hukou-based rights with market-oriented rights. This transformation affects the equilibrium state among market entities, alters the utility and constraints of rural households, and prompts changes in their homestead use behaviors. The accumulation of numerous micro-level homestead use behaviors results in the differentiation of farmer groups and emerges as spatial-level homestead use evolution, following the logical route of "external shock-behavioral response-effect emergence". (2) A spatial equilibrium model is developed to theoretically explore the evolutionary mechanisms of homestead use behavior under the joint reform of hukou system and homestead system. Based on the Rosen-Roback model, two institutional variables are introduced to extend the baseline model with Chinese characteristics. Through comparative static analysis, this study analyzes the impacts of institutional reforms on farmers' homestead use behaviors and proposes propositions. The findings indicate that restrictive hukou and homestead systems neither lead to permanent urban settlement nor complete non-agricultural transformation, resulting in a misallocation of human-land resources. The joint reform of two systems plays a complementary role in encouraging farmers to withdraw from homesteads. This complementarity arises because the hukou system reform grants farmers full urban employment rights and welfare benefits, enhancing the income effect of the homestead system reform and reducing farmers' reliance on the homestead. Consequently, rural-to-urban labor migration and homestead withdrawal occur on a larger scale, accompanied by a higher level of utility for rural households, greater total socio-economic output, and a transformation of negative "crowding-out effect" into positive "agglomeration effect." (3) A difference-in-differences model is constructed to empirically test the hypothesis of homestead use behavior evolution under the joint reform of hukou system and homestead system, with additional focus on the policies, dynamics, and heterogeneity of the effects. The findings based on the national survey data confirm that hukou system reform can improve the effectiveness of homestead system reform in encouraging farmers to withdraw from homesteads, with a 14% increase. Employment and housing policies within the hukou system reform play an effective role. However, as the hukou system reform deepens, the positive effects of the joint reform show an inverted U-shape. At this point, the homestead security function is replaced by urban welfare and is no longer a concern for farmers. Meanwhile, farmers' high expectations for the future value of homesteads, along with their attachment to their hometowns, reduce their willingness to withdraw. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that complementarity is stronger between homestead reform in the central and western regions, non-minority areas, large counties, and distant suburban areas, and hukou system reform in second-tier cities. (4) A simulation model of homestead use evolution and its spatio-temporal effects under the joint reform of hukou system and homestead system is developed. First, a framework combining a spatially explicit multi-agent system and a geographic information system is established. Then, based on the findings above, methods such as projection, regression, and probability are used to build the model. This model illustrates the social relationships among individuals, households, and village groups, as well as the spatial connections between farmers and their corresponding croplands or homesteads. It captures the interactions, impacts, and feedback among policy interventions, social networks, labor migration, homestead use, and environmental changes. Therefore, a coupled human-land system is established. (5) Using Yucheng County in China as a case, this study simulates the spatio-temporal effects of homestead use under different institutional reform scenarios. The findings show that reforming hukou system alone can encourage rural-to-urban migration. However, the high cost of urban housing has become a new barrier to farmers' urban integration, thereby reducing the homestead use efficiency. Likewise, reforming the homestead system alone has limited effects. Among related policies, the paid-use policy may help facilitate the withdrawal of illegally or excessively occupied homesteads. However, its pricing mechanism fails to reflect market supply and demand or land value, which harms farmers' interests. Among the compensated withdrawal policies, when cash compensation, combined with farmers' savings, covers a down payment for urban commercial housing, the proportion of farmers withdrawing from homesteads increases significantly. The effect is more pronounced under the apartment exchange policy, especially when exchange units meet farmers' basic housing needs. The joint reform of two systems can promote rural-urban migration, improve homestead use efficiency, and increase farmers' income. |
| Rights: | All rights reserved |
| Access: | open access |
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