| Author: | Jin, Jung-eun Esther |
| Title: | Modelling and forecasting the demand for and supply of hotel rooms in Hong Kong |
| Degree: | DHTM |
| Year: | 2013 |
| Subject: | Hotels -- China -- Hong Kong Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations |
| Department: | School of Hotel and Tourism Management |
| Pages: | 195 leaves : ill. ; 30 cm. |
| Language: | English |
| Abstract: | This dissertation primarily investigates the determinants of the demand for and supply of hotel rooms at different categories (i.e., High Tariff A, High Tariff B and Medium Tariff) in Hong Kong, and estimates an econometric model to generate quarterly forecasts of such demand and supply. Six models of hotel demand and supply are introduced, and the time period for the analysis is from Quarter 1 2002 to Quarter 1 2012. Room nights sold (e.g., quantity demanded) and number of hotel rooms available (e.g., quantity supplied) are employed as dependent variables. This thesis also uses the bounds tests to determine the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship between hotel demand and supply and their determinants. Based on the presence of such a relationship, the long-run elasticities are estimated using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. According to the empirical results, income, relative price, and exchange rate are found to have the long-run cointegration relationships with hotel demand in all hotel categories, although the significance level of each variable to each tariff hotel differs. Conversely, the Hong Kong GDP, interest rate, Grade A office rent rate and employee salary show the long-run cointegration relationships with hotel supply in all hotel categories. Moreover, the results reveal that production costs, such as real estate price, interest rate and labour cost, are more important than price itself from the supplier perspective when making an investment decision. Potential opportunities for under-capacity for High Tariff A and Medium Tariff hotels are observed based on the long-run forecasts. For High Tariff B hotels, over-capacity situation is forecast. Comprehensive managerial suggestions are provided for the hotel practitioners and policymakers for resource allocation and planning based on the results from both the long-run elasticity estimates and the forecasts for both the demand for and supply of all hotel categories. The economic prosperity of China, governmental regulations and controls, and marketing are the most dominant sources of such opportunities for hotel demand in Hong Kong. Overall, the threats (under- and over-capacity) and opportunities (record-breaking tourist arrivals) have a number of similar sources, and these can grant both success and failure to the capacity management of Hong Kong hotels. |
| Rights: | All rights reserved |
| Access: | restricted access |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| b26731113.pdf | For All Users (off-campus access for PolyU Staff & Students only) | 1.84 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Copyright Undertaking
As a bona fide Library user, I declare that:
- I will abide by the rules and legal ordinances governing copyright regarding the use of the Database.
- I will use the Database for the purpose of my research or private study only and not for circulation or further reproduction or any other purpose.
- I agree to indemnify and hold the University harmless from and against any loss, damage, cost, liability or expenses arising from copyright infringement or unauthorized usage.
By downloading any item(s) listed above, you acknowledge that you have read and understood the copyright undertaking as stated above, and agree to be bound by all of its terms.
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://theses.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/200/7330