Author: Lian, Suran
Title: A simulation-based study on dynamic bus holding strategies with random passenger arrivals
Advisors: Gu, Weihua (EE)
Degree: M.Sc.
Year: 2019
Subject: Bus lines -- Timetables
Buses -- Speed
Traffic engineering
Hong Kong Polytechnic University -- Dissertations
Department: Department of Electrical Engineering
Pages: vi, 25 pages : color illustrations
Language: English
Abstract: Public bus system is inherently unstable. Without control, buses may not arrive at the stops on time under traffic interference, resulting in bus-bunching phenomenon. Adaptive dynamic holding strategies, which have been proposed and extensively studied in recent decades, are often applied to fight this problem.
According to adding bus holding times when bus arriving at each bus stop along the route, the deviations of bus arrival times from the schedule would be compensated. In a word, holding strategies can regulate bus's timetable by controlling their holding times. It has been proved under certain ideal assumptions that this type of strategies can regulate bus headways such that the headway variation will bound, and the bus schedule deviation will also bound by a linearly increasing function (Daganzo (2009)).
However, existing analytical works in this realm were based upon the assumption of deterministic passenger arrivals, which is unrealistic. This project aims to examine the dynamic holding strategies by simulation tests under various operating scenarios when the passenger arrivals are assumed to be random.
We assume passenger arrivals at each stop follow a Poisson process, instead of being deterministic. We will continue to use prevailing headway-based control strategy of bus operations, where the dynamic holding times of buses at each control point (i.e. stop) are determined by the real-time headway information. In addition to extracting real-time information when the bus arrives at each stop, we propose a new control based on the ready-to-go departure time. We have simulated the bus operations under three kinds of control laws: uncontrolled bus motion model, arrival-headway-based controlled model and ready-to-go departure-time-based controlled model.
The results show that the two holding strategies both have good control effects on the punctuality rate and regular headway of the bus system. Further, implementing control at bus ready-to-go departure time gives more real-time information and makes dynamic control more efficient than extracting information at the time of bus arrival.
Rights: All rights reserved
Access: restricted access

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